Boomers at home in Forest Hill
Older age group is growing fastest in luxury neighbourhood
For decades, analysts have been talking about the impact of Baby Boomers on everything from consumer preferences and health care needs, to labour markets and housing demand. The strength of the condominium market, in particular, has been a testament of this process as adult children of Baby Boomers have been leaving home as first-time condominium buyers or renters, and as the empty nester parents themselves have been trading in their large homes for a condominium lifestyle. However, the challenge for many empty nesters has been to find luxury condominium apartments in their current neighbourhoods where they have lived for decades.
A look at the Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates neighbourhoods in midtown Toronto, generally known as the area south of Eglinton, between Bathurst and Yonge Street, and north of Lonsdale Road (census tracts 129, 130 and 131), provides a good snapshot of an ageing population whose housing needs are changing.
According to the latest 2006 census data, there were 13,965 residents living in the Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates area — only 0.7% higher than 2001 when there were 13,870 residents living in the area. The population is distributed relatively evenly by age group — 29% are children and youth (under 24 years); 30% are young professionals (25 to 44 years); and 29% are older professionals (45 to 64 years), reflecting the predominance of families. Seniors over 65 years make up 12% of the population, which is slightly lower than the city of Toronto. However, compared with the 2001 census, the leading edge of Baby Boomers (55 to 64 years) were the fastest-growing age group increasing in numbers by 25.9%, followed by their younger children aged 15 to 24 years (17.5% increase). Not surprisingly, the largest decrease in population (-12.4%) occurred among the 25-to 34-year-olds who moved out of their parents’ homes during this period.
The prevalence of families living in Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates is also evident in the marital status data (of individuals over 24 years), which showed a 10.9% decrease in the number of single residents, compared with a net increase in married and common-law couples. Even the number of separated and divorced residents fell by 4%, compared with a city of Toronto trend toward more “marriage casualties” (6.2% increase from 2001 to 2006). Similarly, the number of one-and two-person households fell, while the number of three-plus person family household increased — again, contrary to the city of Toronto trend toward smaller household sizes.
Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates are also very stable neighbourhoods in terms of housing stock, with virtually no new residential homes constructed from 2001 to 2006, apart from some new homes built to replace older teardowns. More than 60% of current residents were also living in the area during the 2001 census, so it is not surprising that only 22% identified themselves as immigrants, compared to nearly 50% for the city of Toronto, and only 3% of residents immigrated most recently from 2001 to 2006. The majority of immigrants living in Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates originally emigrated from Europe (30%), United States (18%), South America (16%) and Southeast Asia (15%).
The latest census data also reports that Forest Hill and Chaplin Estates are relatively affluent neighbourhood with a lower-than-average unemployment rate, around 2.9% in 2006. Its residents are well educated — 70% have a university degree (including 19% with a post-graduate degree), and most are working in higher-paying occupations such as: management (21%); business, finance and administration (20%); and law, education and government (17%). As such, more than 46% of households reported earning over $100,000 per annum in 2005 and the average annual household income was around $246,000 — among the highest in Toronto.
Toronto’s condo market steady
Even as there are signs greater Toronto’s real estate market is losing a little of its lustre, the condo market appears to be holding steady. “The big news is that new condo statistics are identical to the same quarter as last year,” said Jane Renwick of Urbanation condo market researchers, which released a report on the GTA market’s first quarter today.
“Everybody was worrying if last year’s success was the boom before the bust,” she said. “While sales per project decreased, the same number of buyers showed overall, and that suggests things are holding steady.”
New condo sales came in at 3,433 in the first quarter of 2008 —only eight units less than the same time last year. But those almost identical numbers were spread over 25% more buildings, as the number of projects in the city continues to grow.
Condos tower over low-rise real estate, bith in pricing per square foot and number of units sold.
“Many of them are in prime locations, near subways. And you can buy one for under $300,000 — there are some still advertising for under $250,000. You can’t buy anything close to that in the low-rise market.”
Ms. Renwick said the findings make her “cautiously optimistic” about the market. “The stock market’s been very volatile, but the real estate market is holding,” she said. Some of Toronto’s established condo developers didn’t see these kind of numbers coming.